His election brings new distinction to the university’s renowned actuarial science program and its role in shaping the future of the profession.
Ian Duncan, an adjunct professor in the Department of Statistics and Applied Probability at UC Santa Barbara, has been named the 2025-26 president-elect of the Society of Actuaries (SOA). Tracing its history to 1889, the SOA is the world’s largest professional organization for actuaries, with more than 34,000 members. Its mission is to advance actuaries as leaders in measuring and managing risk to improve financial outcomes for individuals, organizations and the public. Duncan will officially become the organization's 78th president at its 2026 ImpACT Annual Conference.
The election marks a milestone in a career spanning more than five decades. As a dedicated SOA volunteer for 30 years and a two-time board member, Duncan considers the presidency a natural progression.
“This is great news for Ian and also for UCSB,” said Tomoyuki Ichiba, a professor and the department chair. “I greatly appreciate his dedication to the Society and to our students in the actuarial science program.”
A Commitment to Education and Innovation
Duncan joined the UC Santa Barbara faculty 15 years ago and was instrumental in helping its actuarial science program earn the prestigious Center of Actuarial Excellence designation. His election now brings further distinction to the department.
“I'm hoping this opportunity will highlight our very fine program here at the university and put us on the map even more,” Duncan said.
Drawing on a career in both industry and academia, Duncan is an entrepreneur who has founded or co-founded five companies. His latest, Santa Barbara Actuaries Inc., merged with Arbital Health in 2023. His professional work has focused on advancing actuarial applications in health care, particularly in predictive modeling. This blend of academic rigor and real-world application has been a hallmark of his contribution to the university.
A Vision for the Future of Actuarial Science
As the public face of the SOA, Duncan will support the board’s strategic pillars, which include optimizing the pipeline of new actuaries, continuing international expansion and adapting to new technology. A central challenge, he noted, is preparing the profession for the impact of artificial intelligence.
“The question is, how do we change the education and the exam requirements that students have to go through in order to fit them for this new AI world?” Duncan asked.
In addition to these initiatives, he plans to advance a personal agenda focused on fostering a new mindset within the profession. “Actuaries by nature are not risk-takers,” he noted. “I've been an entrepreneur, and I want to promote entrepreneurship and innovation during my term.”
A Record of Scholarship and Service
A prolific scholar, Duncan is a fellow of multiple international actuarial societies and a member of the American Academy of Actuaries. He has authored more than 70 peer-reviewed papers and several books, including “Healthcare Risk Adjustment and Predictive Modeling” and “Managing and Evaluating Healthcare Intervention Programs.”
He earned a doctorate in actuarial statistics from Heriot-Watt University in Edinburgh and holds a graduate degree in economics from Balliol College, Oxford.